Looks like we are all gonna die soon...

[scared?]

I better kill that yourgrandpa dipshit before the rest of us go...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/scien ... 76278.html

Scared?...

[seremtan]

that's pretty bad

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

same thing happens when permafrost thaws...

[losCHUNK]

Meh don't get too excited, the guys been studying for 20 years and all of a sudden 'maybe thousands' of these gas vents come from nowhere ?, plus it's pretty confined ?

In short, fuck all is known :]

[seremtan]

yeah, fuck all is known, right up to the point where the climate's so fucked up it never ever stops raining in Wales

oh wait

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

Meh don't get too excited, the guys been studying for 20 years and all of a sudden 'maybe thousands' of these gas vents come from nowhere ?, plus it's pretty confined ?

In short, fuck all is known :]

It has been known for a long time. What wasn't known was how bad it would be. Also molecules in the air are not confined. Also there is a LOT of permafrost that is now thawing across the planet so it's not confined that way either.

use the search function on this forum and search for methane. This is old news.

[losCHUNK]

Meh don't get too excited, the guys been studying for 20 years and all of a sudden 'maybe thousands' of these gas vents come from nowhere ?, plus it's pretty confined ?

In short, fuck all is known :]

It has been known for a long time. What wasn't known was how bad it would be. Also molecules in the air are not confined. Also there is a LOT of permafrost that is now thawing across the planet so it's not confined that way either.

use the search function on this forum and search for methane. This is old news.

I just did a quick search and found a thread from 09 that you started with some pretty good posts :], basically says what that article does though ? (just had a skim was quite a big thread). I've looked into it a little but from what I can see is guesswork, the thought is quite scary that if temps rise that'll causes a reduction in permafrost, which in turn will be a catalyst for global warming and provides the final nail in the coffin ?.

Not sure if these can be considered stupid questions but

- The study posted, has this research uncovered new information, like, has it been outputting X amount of methane for the last 20 years when really it was producing a much larger amount ?, or has the methane production accelerated drastically in the last 20 years because of thawing permafrost ?.

- What does this look like on a pie chart of other producers of methane ? (natural or man made ?).

- What percentage of the globe is covered in ice and if melted, it's effects on the globe ?

- I think I read that methane only lasts in the atmosphere for like 9 years n all ?, so does these studies compensate for that ?, because these arctic shelves aren't gonna thaw out in the next 9 years and any methane produced now will be absorbed elsewhere during that time ?

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

Not stupid questions but to lose sight of the big picture here would be a mistake. The world is really fucked unless we all (humans everywhere) change the way our societies work. Other than that, scientists can come up with a way to try and manage the warming. (One idea being talked about is causing massive evaporation over the Pacific ocean to add much more cloud cover to the planet and therefore cool it somewhat. I really haven't looked into how feasible this is but trying to treat symptoms is never ideal.

“[The first study to quantify when and how much carbon will be released from thawing permafrost was published online on February 15, 2011 in the meteorological journal Tellus. According to study co-author Kevin Schaefer, a scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado], ‘The amount of carbon [projected to be released from melting permafrost] is equivalent to half the amount of carbon that has been released into the atmosphere since the dawn of the industrial age,’ The additional carbon from permafrost would increase the average temperatures in the Arctic by eight to 10 degrees C, the study reported. Not only would this utterly transform the Arctic, it would also increase the planet's average temperature by about three degrees C, agrees Schaefer.

...As catastrophic as all this is, Schaefer acknowledges his study underestimates what is likely to happen. The model does not measure methane releases, which are 40 times as potent in terms of warming as carbon. Methane could have a big impact on temperatures in the short term, he says. ‘There would be a lot of methane emissions. We're working on estimating those right now,’ he said. The model also does not include emissions from the large region of underwater permafrost. IPS [Inter Press Service] previously reported that an estimated eight million tonnes of methane emissions are bubbling to the surface from the shallow East Siberian Arctic shelf every year.

If just one percent of the Arctic undersea methane (also called methane hydrates) reaches the atmosphere, it could quadruple the amount of methane currently in the atmosphere, Vladimir Romanovsky of the University of Alaska in Fairbanks previously told IPS. Nor does the model account for a process called thermokarst erosion, acknowledges Schaefer. This is a widely observed process where meltwater erodes the permafrost and exposes it to warmer temperatures and speeding up the thaw. ‘We can't model that yet but it could contribute to major releases of carbon and methane,’ he said. None of this has been taken into account by politicians and policy makers looking to cut humanity's carbon emissions with the agreed on target of keeping global temperatures below two degrees C.” (Stephen Leahy, “Permafrost Melt Soon Irreversible Without Major Fossil Fuel Cuts,” Inter Press Service, Uxbridge, Canada, February 17, 2011 reporting findings in Kevin Schaefer, Tingjun Zhang, Lori Bruhwiler, Andrew P. Barrett, "Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming," Tellus B, 2011; DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011. 00527.x, article first published online on February 15, 2011)

In short, the planet is well and truly fucked.

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

2020 - Melting Permafrost

2020 – 2030. Time frame when irreversible climate tipping point is projected to occur due to carbon outgassing from melting permafrost. “An irreversible climate ‘tipping point’ could occur within the next 20 years [between 2010 and 2030] as a result of the release of huge quantities of organic carbon locked away as frozen plant matter in the vast permafrost region of the Arctic, scientists have found. [What is a 'tipping point'?] Billions of tons of frozen leaves and roots [containing carbon] that have lain undisturbed for thousands of years in the permanently frozen ground of the northern hemisphere are thawing out, with potentially catastrophic implications for climate change, the researchers said."

"A study into the speed at which the permafrost is melting suggests that the tipping point will occur between 2020 and 2030 and will mark the point at which the Arctic turns from being a net ‘sink’ for carbon dioxide into an overall source that will accelerate global warming, they said. . . . ‘Our research shows that the release of carbon from permafrost will result in an irreversible climate tipping point in only 20 years...'

'Once the frozen carbon thaws out and decays, there is no way to put it back into the permafrost,’ [Dr. Kevin Schaefer of the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado] said.” (Steve Connor, Science Editor, “Melting of the Arctic 'will accelerate climate change within 20 years', The Independent, Monday, May 30, 2011 reporting findings in Kevin Schaefer, Tingjun Zhang, Lori Bruhwiler, Andrew P. Barrett. Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming, Tellus B, (Steve Connor, Science Editor, “Melting of the Arctic 'will accelerate climate change within 20 years', The Independent, Monday, May 30, 2011 reporting findings in Dr. Kevin Schaefer, Tingjun Zhang, Lori Bruhwiler, Andrew P. Barrett. Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming, Tellus B, 63: 165–180. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x, Volume 63, Issue 2, pages 165–180, April 2011)

See Methane potency ratings in Table at right.

See “Thawing Permafrost Study” video featuring commentary by Dr. Kevin Schaefer, NSIDC, CERES, February 16, 2011

http://www.global-warming-forecasts.com/permafrost.php

A]wareness of methane leaks from permafrost is so new that it was not even mentioned in the seminal 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (1)

— Arthur Max, Bureau Chief
Associated Press, The Netherlands
November 2010

[Psyche911]

In short, the planet is well and truly fucked.

The planet is fine. Humans (and a "few" other) species are fucked. The worst we can do is make the planet uninhabitable for ourselves and kill some species off with us. Earth is fine. Life will continue.

Cheer up Puff.

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

In short, the planet is well and truly fucked.

The planet is fine. Humans (and a "few" other) species are fucked. The worst we can do is make the planet uninhabitable for ourselves and kill some species off with us. Earth is fine. Life will continue.

Cheer up Puff.

I don't disagree that life will continue but I also think it's tragic. So much more than a "few" of the species on the planet will not be fine.

Humans, well I sort of have a love/hate thing going on there. If we can't get our shit together enough to save ourselves from ourselves then maybe we need to go...

I found the cheer up comment interesting as I wasn't expressing my feelings in my posts above, I was expressing certain facts which tend to stir emotion. Sorry if I bummed you out.

[losCHUNK]

N1, but lol, I'm still being stupid I think, I guess they're still trying to find answers for some of my questions but hasn't the north/south pole been shrinking for decades ?, glaciers have been retreating for atleast 100 years ?, so is it only the methane locked away in these portions of ice ? (ice from millions of years ago or whatever ?), because technically we should be fucked already ?, way more than 1% of the north pole has disappeared (greenpeace will tell you its gone) which should've quadrupled methane in our atmosphere ?

I guess I can't grasp why this is new lol (the findings), on stuff that started happening before I was born

I noticed it also said that melting perma frost will release as much carbon as half the industrial revolution, which to be fair, only half ?, the human species has already survived a whole industrial revolution !, half of one would be a piece of piss ! lol... I realise that the planets become more industrialised but, so has our efficiency and views towards dirty industries :]

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

It's not in the ice, it's in the frozen ground which is unfreezing.

If you look at the ice retreat map in the Arctic, it's lost more than half it's mass in the last 30 years.

I realise that the planets become more industrialised but, so has our efficiency and views towards dirty industries

No. Industrial growth has been exponential and we are polluting so much more today than ever before.

[seremtan]

the msm has a lot to answer for on this issue (and a few others too). no wonder so many people think the whole issue is 'undecided' or say 'there's a debate to be had'

yeah, sure, like the 'debate to be had' between people who think the moon landings really happened and the geoffs who think they were faked in an arizona warehouse; between people who think 9/11 was 19 jihadis hijacking passenger planes and the (same) geoffs who think a military plane loaded with nano-thermite was remote-piloted into the north tower by dick cheney personally; between evolutionists and creationists. *that* kind of debate

[losCHUNK]

It's not in the ice, it's in the frozen ground which is unfreezing.

If you look at the ice retreat map in the Arctic, it's lost more than half it's mass in the last 30 years.
[img]graph[/img]

Well it's lost about 1km ?, averages over the last 6 years seem to indicate stability also ?, not saying climate change isn't happening, just saying it happens :]

This isn't the hottest the earth has been by a long shot n all, and none of those occasions created a self sustaining situation into global catastrophe, but show methane and Co2 levels rising and falling in accordance with global temperatures -

[lvlshot]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ations.png[/lvlshot]

[lvlshot]http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/ ... 589-f2.jpg[/lvlshot]

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... -made.html

I'm calling bullshit on the effectiveness of methane as a greenhouse gas n all, as it's life in the atmosphere is 12 years at most, as opposed to Co2 that can live for 100s of thousands of years, despite being a better greenhouse gas, methanes production would have to be a silly amount more than it is now to be as effective ?, in relation to Co2 (i'm talking production 7-9 times greater than what it is now). Methane can also be consumed by natural organisms (http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jan/06 ... a-20110105) that will more than likely fluorish and consume a lot of what is released, with most molecules being washed back down by rain and sank into the ocean or grounds elsewhere on the globe (along with the thawed arctic shelf) ?.

We need to consider the amount of methane in the atmosphere n all, because if we talk about our atmosphere as 100s of millions of units, I know the Co2 build up in that would struggle equate to around the tens of thousands, if that, with methane taking up 1/200 of that ?, with these permafrost thaws being an even smaller percentage again (Just seen Co2 levels currently sit at around the 0.39% mark). Also, assuming Co2 is 390,000 ppb then methane is currently sitting at around 1800 (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html) lol. Which leaves the question in the estimation of a tipping point in 2020 - 2030, because methane production I believe increased by 0.1%(1.8ppb ?) since 2008 ?, or 1998, so are they telling us that an increase of 8 ppb by 2025 will mark the end of the world ?, based on current forecasts ?, bullshit ! . If methane represents, roughly speaking, 0.5% of what Co2 does, which accommodates 0.39% of the total globes atmosphere, methane would only equal around 0.000195% of the total ?, meaning a raise of 8ppb is not even worth converting into a percentage :/. If any of these scenarios are true, IMO it would take 100s or thousands of years.

I realise that the planets become more industrialised but, so has our efficiency and views towards dirty industries

No. Industrial growth has been exponential and we are polluting so much more today than ever before.

Don't go shouting at us, it's the rest of you fuckers that need to be playing catch up

[lvlshot]http://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/eur ... 837ea.jpeg[/lvlshot]

[Ryoki]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/scien ... 76278.html

That is not good...

[seremtan]

Chunk - you're right that methane doesn't hang around as long as CO2, however it's 70x more heat-trapping than CO2, so - according to a BBC piece i can't find but read yesterday, some thing about methane plumes - this means that over the space of 100 years methane will 'only' be 20x more heat trapping than CO2

also, those graphs the climate sceptic sites use tend to have the last few years lopped off - you know, the years with all the serious fucking warming in them

[HM-PuFFNSTuFF]

Chunk - you're right that methane doesn't hang around as long as CO2, however it's 70x more heat-trapping than CO2, so - according to a BBC piece i can't find but read yesterday, some thing about methane plumes - this means that over the space of 100 years methane will 'only' be 20x more heat trapping than CO2

also, those graphs the climate sceptic sites use tend to have the last few years lopped off - you know, the years with all the serious fucking warming in them

Keep in mind Chunkeh that when methane degrades it turns into CO2.

[xer0s]

Two for one!

[scared?]

I fuck men...

[seremtan]

What, no conspiracy theory, Geoffrey? You disappoint me

[losCHUNK]

Chunk - you're right that methane doesn't hang around as long as CO2, however it's 70x more heat-trapping than CO2, so - according to a BBC piece i can't find but read yesterday, some thing about methane plumes - this means that over the space of 100 years methane will 'only' be 20x more heat trapping than CO2

also, those graphs the climate sceptic sites use tend to have the last few years lopped off - you know, the years with all the serious fucking warming in them

Lol that's the bit I was calling bullshit cos any sum I did in my head didn't add up, methane output would have to be way over double, or triple, or quadruple, to sustain itself at the same levels of Co2, in reguards to current output, and it turns out I was right :P

They are wrong; the gas is not 21 times more effective at all. Their confusion stems from the fact that it is 1 tonne of CH4 which is 21 times more effective than 1 tonne of CO2, but as Dr Flood points out there are a lot more CH4 molecules in a tonne than there are CO2 molecules in a tonne.

(This is because CO2 has a molecular weight of 44 while CH4 is only 16. There are 2.75 times more CH4 molecules in a tonne than there are CO 2 molecules in a tonne.)

http://www.farmcarbon.co.nz/index.php/2 ... after-all/

And those graphs weren't from sceptic sites, they were pulled off wiki I believe when I was trying to find data on the holocene, if you want the rest of the years then another graph can be found at the same place covering upto 2010, ya know, 'the years with all the serious fucking warming in them', and could be the reason why pro-climate change scientists may not include years after 2000 ? ;p

[lvlshot]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... g.A%29.gif[/lvlshot]

Chunk - you're right that methane doesn't hang around as long as CO2, however it's 70x more heat-trapping than CO2, so - according to a BBC piece i can't find but read yesterday, some thing about methane plumes - this means that over the space of 100 years methane will 'only' be 20x more heat trapping than CO2

also, those graphs the climate sceptic sites use tend to have the last few years lopped off - you know, the years with all the serious fucking warming in them

Keep in mind Chunkeh that when methane degrades it turns into CO2.

This is true, although as I said, the total amount of methane currently sits at 1800ppb so, if that gets converted into Co2 tomorrow, it's still only a tiny amount when compared to pretty much any of the Co2 contributors (towards the 390,000pb), IF its converted tomorrow, all of it. Methane also produces water vapour when converted to Co2 which is a catalyst in decreasing the amount of methane and Co2 already in the atmosphere.

[seremtan]

so what happened to these magic boats that were going to cruise the pacific spraying water up into the atmosphere to increase the cloud albedo? wouldn't have fixed the acidification of the oceans but at least it would have been a start on the warming problem

[losCHUNK]

Prolly realised the medias lost its hard on