1965 - Moore's Law

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saturn
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1965 - Moore's Law

Post by saturn »

Intel was searching for the original article in which Gordon Moore predicted that every year the numbers of transistors on a chip would double. They wanted to display it in their museum. It was published in a magazine but they couldn't retrieve it.


Finally, they put an advertisement on eBay and a crazy brit replied. He collected magazine for decades and stored them under his house's floor. He still had the original magazine (Electronics, Vol 38) and Intel bought it for 10K $

Here's the historical article in PDF format:
ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_ ... rticle.pdf
mjrpes
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Post by mjrpes »

So by putting Moore's Law in a museum does that mean it has come to an end?
Canidae
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Post by Canidae »

Ummm...They have airplanes in museums. Does that mean aeronautics have come to an end?
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Don Carlos
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Post by Don Carlos »

heh
Where were you when the West was defeated?
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DiscoDave
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Post by DiscoDave »

Im revising all this stuff for an upcoming exam :paranoid:
eepberries
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Post by eepberries »

Canidae wrote:Ummm...They have airplanes in museums. Does that mean aeronautics have come to an end?
:icon19: Oh logic, you just never fail
Nightshade
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Post by Nightshade »

mjrpes wrote:So by putting Moore's Law in a museum does that mean it has come to an end?
Not yet, but it will soon.
dmmh
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Post by dmmh »

dated
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Canidae
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Post by Canidae »

Nightshade wrote:
mjrpes wrote:So by putting Moore's Law in a museum does that mean it has come to an end?
Not yet, but it will soon.
I don't think it will anytime soon since he only stated in 1965 that the number of components per integrated circuit would increase by a factor of two which means it can continue if die sizes grow by stacking etc.
The current Moores law is not the same as what he originally made it and now the term chip density is used, mostly because some people want it to be broken.
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Massive Quasars
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Post by Massive Quasars »

Nightshade wrote: Not yet, but it will soon.
I don't think so, but we'll see.
saturn
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Post by saturn »

Actually, it's approximately 18 months now and physical limitations could be reached in 2017.

Unless they switch over to something new like quantum CPUs or optical CPUs
Nightshade
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Post by Nightshade »

Massive Quasars wrote:
Nightshade wrote: Not yet, but it will soon.
I don't think so, but we'll see.
See sat's post. We're approaching limits of the materials used in semiconductor manufacturing. The physics involved dictate that at a certain feature size, gates will cease to function.
Massive Quasars
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Post by Massive Quasars »

Yes, if there's no "switch over" to something else as Sat said. I wouldn't bet money on it, but I think Moore's law (in one form or another) has some life left in it.
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blood.angel
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Post by blood.angel »

The law stopped being true 2 years ago.
Otherwise we would be running 10GHz computers now.
Nightshade
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Post by Nightshade »

Massive Quasars wrote:Yes, if there's no "switch over" to something else as Sat said. I wouldn't bet money on it, but I think Moore's law (in one form or another) has some life left in it.
Well, I was referring only to existing materials/process technologies.
Geebs
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Post by Geebs »

It's not a fucking law anyway, I have no idea why nerds get so upset about it.

Anyway, the corollary is the law that states that the faster processors get, the crappier the code you'll have running on them.
4days
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Post by 4days »

Geebs wrote:Anyway, the corollary is the law that states that the faster processors get, the crappier the code you'll have running on them.
amen
mjrpes
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Post by mjrpes »

Geebs wrote:It's not a fucking law anyway, I have no idea why nerds get so upset about it.

Anyway, the corollary is the law that states that the faster processors get, the crappier the code you'll have running on them.
so true :D

but also as time goes on languages themselves become higher level. writing code in php/c#/ruby/python is so EZ :)
saturn
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Post by saturn »

blood.angel wrote:The law stopped being true 2 years ago.
Otherwise we would be running 10GHz computers now.
hey, megahurtz isn't correlated with the numbers of transistors.

Hell, the videocards these days could have powered a Cray supercomputer 10 years ago.
corsair
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Post by corsair »

I once read about some arabian group doing research on biological computers, which could become the next gen
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