Let's discuss a possible plague

[Cool Blue]

I'm in the middle of re-watching 'The Stand' by Stephen King with my girlfriend and it had me thinking about that kind of scenario happening in real life. Not likely, I know but... then last night I watched a rather scary report on the Marbug virus outbreak in Africa going on right now. Scary shit, since it has a 90% death rate.

After that I was actually getting kinda wigged out (solely because of just watching the Stand). What eased my mind, was that I did a little more research on it and discovered that it has appeared before in the late 60s, so it had been brought under control at one point and we have experience it at least.

But still, I have this unsettled feeling about it all. It'll pass but it's still scary shit.


Got me thinking what I would do if a situation like that really happened. Me? I'd run to the hills with anybody that wanted to join me. I know perfect place in the mountains that could sustain life easily while we waited out the shit storm of death.

That said... I feel we could contain a marburg outbreak if it did breech the small communities of Africa. But if not...

[Cool Blue]

It would be interesting to get the Docs opinions on this kind of situation.

[Survivor]

I'd say an outbreak on a global scale is bound to happen, intentional or not. But it may be decades before it does, it's simply one of the things to keep population in check.

[werldhed]

Marburg is less likely to cause an epidemic because it doesn't spread quite as easily as things such as influenza making it a bit easier to contain. I would say a devestating flu outbreak is bound to occur sometime in the near future, but general smart lifestyle characteristics can probably help you avoid it.

BTW, Marburg only has a 25% fatality rate. Ebola (similar to Marburg), on the other hand, has a much higher fatality rate.

[werldhed]

Also, a big problem with containment of Marburg in Africa is superstition and lack of knowledge. The African people don't trust the western docs in their big orange Rattan suits (those space suit-looking things) and often refuse to listen to what the docs have to say. They rely on witch doctors instead, which leads to general ignorance, to panic, to increased spread of disease.

In the US and Europe, this is less likely to happen.

[Nightshade]

I would say that in order to have a massive outbreak and loss of life from a virus of that sort, the latency period would have to be much longer. If lots of people started dropping like flies within a day or so after getting it, everyone would just isolate themselves and the disease would burn out.
Where's the fun in that?

[Fender]

http://www.stanford.edu/group/virus/uda/
20 - 40 Million killed in two years by the flu

[losCHUNK]

id laugh at rep dying then die a happy man

[feedback]

Read "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston. It's not exactly about Ebola Marburg, it's about an isolated case of Ebola that was apparently airborne.