Quake3World

It’s simple but the articles have some good points, I also think that the next major revolution is going to involve robots. But I think it will be primarly military related at first.

http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

The iceberg looks like this. On that same day, I interacted with five different automated systems like the kiosks in McDonald's:

* I got money in the morning from the ATM.
* I bought gas from an automated pump.
* I bought groceries at BJ's (a warehouse club) using an extremely well-designed self-service check out line.
* I bought some stuff for the house at Home Depot using their not-as-well-designed-as-BJ's self-service check out line.
* I bought my food at McDonald's at the kiosk, as described above.

All of these systems are very easy-to-use from a customer standpoint, they are fast, and they lower the cost of doing business and should therefore lead to lower prices. All of that is good, so these automated systems will proliferate rapidly.

The problem is that these systems will also eliminate jobs in massive numbers. In fact, we are about to see a seismic shift in the American workforce. As a nation, we have no way to understand or handle the level of unemployment that we will see in our economy over the next several decades.

Nice article. I'll read some of the other ones he's written later.

Tormentius wrote:This trend won't lead to more people being unemployed IMO. It will simply change the types of jobs which people do.

I disagree, robots are going to bring in a new type of goverment and economy. All this "free" labour will eventualy free the human race to pursue other matters than survivial. Survival is the reason we work now but when a robot capable of doing anything a human can gains enough intelligence to do routine tasks for us it's only a matter of time before we have our own personal slaves. We can send them to work and get an hourly wage in any labour force and sit home and collect the money.

The economy is going to have to be changed for it to function. The problem though is I doubt we'll see it at this level. Be the time robotics reach this level of perfection and have viable power sources I figure I'll be in my 70's or 80's

i made a robot once, once you enabled the shock sensor and hit the surface it was sitting on, it would spin at a very faste rate and break shit... boy that thing owned.

I vaguely recall reading this article before, and disagreeing with the conclusions afterwards.

Tormentius wrote:This trend won't lead to more people being unemployed IMO. It will simply change the types of jobs which people do.

It will increase the disparity between the rich and the poor unless the working class, that will be more and more displaced by machines, are protected from the greedy elite excluding them from the spoils of increased leisure that would come about.

Kracus wrote:

Tormentius wrote:This trend won't lead to more people being unemployed IMO. It will simply change the types of jobs which people do.

I disagree, robots are going to bring in a new type of goverment and economy. All this "free" labour will eventualy free the human race to pursue other matters than survivial. Survival is the reason we work now but when a robot capable of doing anything a human can gains enough intelligence to do routine tasks for us it's only a matter of time before we have our own personal slaves. We can send them to work and get an hourly wage in any labour force and sit home and collect the money.

The economy is going to have to be changed for it to function. The problem though is I doubt we'll see it at this level. Be the time robotics reach this level of perfection and have viable power sources I figure I'll be in my 70's or 80's

If you're right about that it wouldn't be a good thing as people would just become even lazier.

Canidae wrote:

Tormentius wrote:This trend won't lead to more people being unemployed IMO. It will simply change the types of jobs which people do.

It will increase the disparity between the rich and the poor unless the working class, that will be more and more displaced by machines, are protected from the greedy elite excluding them from the spoils of increased leisure that would come about.

It could. Even now the working class is becoming more educated in order to stay employed though so I think it would simply be an extension of that trend.

Canidae wrote: It will increase the disparity between the rich and the poor unless the working class, that will be more and more displaced by machines, are protected from the greedy elite excluding them from the spoils of increased leisure that would come about.

I'm surprised you would say that, but then I also thought you were a capitalist and it turned out you weren't (to any great extent).

Tormentius wrote: If you're right about that it wouldn't be a good thing as people would just become even lazier.

The least likely of all possible futures would be one where we remain unaugmented humans surrounded and supported by ultraintelligent machines. This fantasy world comes straight out of Star Trek. Relatively speaking, it's far more likely we'll destroy ourselves then realize said future.

Massive Quasars wrote: The least likely of all possible futures would be one where we remain unaugmented humans surrounded and supported by ultraintelligent machines. This fantasy world comes straight out of Star Trek. Relatively speaking, it's far more likely we'll destroy ourselves then realize said future.

I think you misunderstood my point. I'm not talking about scifi but rather our tendency to become lazier whenever given the opportunity to do so. If, as Kracus said, we didn't need to work then I'd be willing to bet most people would simply sit around rather than take an approach to life which would require self-discipline and study.

Tormentius wrote: I think you misunderstood my point. I'm not talking about scifi but rather our tendency to become lazier whenever given the opportunity to do so. If, as Kracus said, we didn't need to work then I'd be willing to bet most people would simply sit around rather than take an approach to life which would require self-discipline and study.

In fact, we'll likely want to work. With accelerating increases in absolute wealth, governments could conceivably support some lazy unaugmented humans with minimal cost relative to the overall economy (in the future). However to prosper (if you choose to prosper) you'll need to work, if your competitors are many orders of magnitude more intelligent through enhancement, you'll likely have to follow suit just so you can compete. While you probably won't have to work non-stop indefinitely to survive, you'll likely have more freedom to take time off from work to pursue other goals.

Notice I qualify all my predictions, I can't be certain what the future will bring.

Massive Quasars wrote:
In fact, we'll likely want to work.

That an ideal world (quite reminiscient of Star Trek) but IMO that is unlikely to be the case. People generally tend to do as little as they need to in order to maintain the style of life they are comfortable with.

Kracus wrote:

Tormentius wrote:This trend won't lead to more people being unemployed IMO. It will simply change the types of jobs which people do.

I disagree, robots are going to bring in a new type of goverment and economy. All this "free" labour will eventualy free the human race to pursue other matters than survivial. Survival is the reason we work now but when a robot capable of doing anything a human can gains enough intelligence to do routine tasks for us it's only a matter of time before we have our own personal slaves. We can send them to work and get an hourly wage in any labour force and sit home and collect the money.

The economy is going to have to be changed for it to function. The problem though is I doubt we'll see it at this level. Be the time robotics reach this level of perfection and have viable power sources I figure I'll be in my 70's or 80's

You are simplifying a great much. Tormentius is on the right track and is the more accepted idea by sociologists and computer scientists.

To reach the level of complete and upmost independence, we need robots that can essentially program themselves. In essence, the only way for them to handle every possible situation much like the animal kingdom does. However, this is easier said than done.

Realistically, we might be able to have robots which serve a certain purpose and does it well. Say a juicer-bot or vacum-bot (think The Jetsons).

However, you can not forget the fact that with every new technology, there is a series of jobs necessary to maintain it. Perhaps we will no longer have supermarket baggers/cashiers, but is that really an issue?

The job will simply move the lowest position on the economic chain to a "robot supervisor" or repair tech. Somebody will need to perform maintenance on the robot's programming and physical state.

Self contained systems are extremelly difficult to maintain. Even the simplest electronic appliance needs replacement and maintenance.

The REAL issue lies many more generations ahead with great speculation. If we do reach a point where a robot essentially acts/behaves like a human where do we draw the line? Do we accept them as members of society or do they remain slaves? What do we do when a robot chooses to be baptized? What if a robot wants to kill itself, other robots, or us?

The stereotypical movie issues mentioned above are nowhere near in our future. However, what I personally fear the most is how we've become more and more dependant on our technology. Most people can't fathom living without a car and television. THAT is scarier to me than a bunch of robots doing dirty work. I've met local kids who depend on a calculator to do their math homework. I find it pathetic, but it is a reality which can lead to our downfall.

edit: my sources come from college level philosophy, computer science, and artificial intelligence books.


PS: Most people run OS's with drastic programming flaws and errors. The same programmers will be coding the robots of tomorrow. I expect to have robots that do your grocery for you, but always bring back the wrong stuff. Some cities can't even get their traffic lighting system to function properly, and we want to have robots sustain themselves?

Tormentius wrote: People generally tend to do as little as they need to in order to maintain the style of life they are comfortable with.

I don't believe people will be comfortable with a fixed quality of life. If they can work for something better they will in most cases. Work doesn't have to be drudgery either, you can work to further your goals while making an income.

As long as Skynet doesn't fuck up the Pleasure Bot 2000, I really don't give a shit about a robot dominated future.

Torm are you saying that at some point people will consider their level of development sufficient and choose to stagnate from then on?