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1965 - Moore's Law
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 8:55 pm
by saturn
Intel was searching for the original article in which Gordon Moore predicted that every year the numbers of transistors on a chip would double. They wanted to display it in their museum. It was published in a magazine but they couldn't retrieve it.
Finally, they put an advertisement on eBay and a crazy brit replied. He collected magazine for decades and stored them under his house's floor. He still had the original magazine (Electronics, Vol 38) and Intel bought it for 10K $
Here's the historical article in PDF format:
ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_ ... rticle.pdf
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 9:11 pm
by mjrpes
So by putting Moore's Law in a museum does that mean it has come to an end?
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 9:15 pm
by Canidae
Ummm...They have airplanes in museums. Does that mean aeronautics have come to an end?
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 9:16 pm
by Don Carlos
heh
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 9:17 pm
by DiscoDave
Im revising all this stuff for an upcoming exam

Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 9:39 pm
by eepberries
Canidae wrote:Ummm...They have airplanes in museums. Does that mean aeronautics have come to an end?
:icon19: Oh logic, you just never fail
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 9:43 pm
by Nightshade
mjrpes wrote:So by putting Moore's Law in a museum does that mean it has come to an end?
Not yet, but it will soon.
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 9:46 pm
by dmmh
dated
Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2005 10:55 pm
by Canidae
Nightshade wrote:mjrpes wrote:So by putting Moore's Law in a museum does that mean it has come to an end?
Not yet, but it will soon.
I don't think it will anytime soon since he only stated in 1965 that the number of components per integrated circuit would increase by a factor of two which means it can continue if die sizes grow by stacking etc.
The current Moores law is not the same as what he originally made it and now the term chip density is used, mostly because some people want it to be broken.
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 3:08 am
by Massive Quasars
Nightshade wrote:
Not yet, but it will soon.
I don't think so, but we'll see.
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 5:16 am
by saturn
Actually, it's approximately 18 months now and physical limitations could be reached in 2017.
Unless they switch over to something new like quantum CPUs or optical CPUs
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:12 am
by Nightshade
Massive Quasars wrote:Nightshade wrote:
Not yet, but it will soon.
I don't think so, but we'll see.
See sat's post. We're approaching limits of the materials used in semiconductor manufacturing. The physics involved dictate that at a certain feature size, gates will cease to function.
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 1:56 pm
by Massive Quasars
Yes, if there's no "switch over" to something else as Sat said. I wouldn't bet money on it, but I think Moore's law (in one form or another) has some life left in it.
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 2:02 pm
by blood.angel
The law stopped being true 2 years ago.
Otherwise we would be running 10GHz computers now.
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 3:35 pm
by Nightshade
Massive Quasars wrote:Yes, if there's no "switch over" to something else as Sat said. I wouldn't bet money on it, but I think Moore's law (in one form or another) has some life left in it.
Well, I was referring only to existing materials/process technologies.
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 4:16 pm
by Geebs
It's not a fucking law anyway, I have no idea why nerds get so upset about it.
Anyway, the corollary is the law that states that the faster processors get, the crappier the code you'll have running on them.
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 5:23 pm
by 4days
Geebs wrote:Anyway, the corollary is the law that states that the faster processors get, the crappier the code you'll have running on them.
amen
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 5:45 pm
by mjrpes
Geebs wrote:It's not a fucking law anyway, I have no idea why nerds get so upset about it.
Anyway, the corollary is the law that states that the faster processors get, the crappier the code you'll have running on them.
so true
but also as time goes on languages themselves become higher level. writing code in php/c#/ruby/python is so EZ

Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 5:58 pm
by saturn
blood.angel wrote:The law stopped being true 2 years ago.
Otherwise we would be running 10GHz computers now.
hey, megahurtz isn't correlated with the numbers of transistors.
Hell, the videocards these days could have powered a Cray supercomputer 10 years ago.
Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2005 6:06 pm
by corsair
I once read about some arabian group doing research on biological computers, which could become the next gen