Quake3World

Merrill Lynch report:

Quote:
PS3 starts to slip – what are the implications?

Commentary from our Japanese colleague Hitoshi Kuriyama yesterday regarding
the possibility of a delayed Playstation 3 launch has important implications for
game software vendors, and somewhat less notable implications for hardware
and semiconductor vendors. The analysis cited reports that the launch of PS3
could be delayed by between 6 and 12 months, with the result being an autumn
launch in Japan and a late 2006 launch in the U.S. We address the impact on
different businesses in this note.

Some history – costs have been a major issue

First, a little history is in order. We wrote last November (The Next Game
Consoles, 11/2/05) that Sony’s design choices for the PS3 had resulted in an
expensive and difficult-to-manufacture product, and we think that we’re seeing the
consequences of those choices play out now. In particular, Sony’s decision to
implement an ambitious new processor architecture – the Cell – not only took a
great deal of design effort, but also has resulted in a processor that we think will
cost Sony at least $230 per unit initially. Leaving development costs aside, the
Cell itself looks like it’s going to be expensive to manufacture. The die, at 235
square millimeters initially, is large, and Sony plans to manufacture it on a
leading-edge 90nm process. Add to that the fact that the die is mostly logic, not
memory arrays that can easily be repaired, and you’ve got a part that looks like it
will be difficult and expensive to manufacture. There are additional reports that
delays have surfaced on the NVIDIA-designed RSX graphics processor, although
that part does not look to be as much of a long-term challenge as Cell.

Our colleague’s analysis suggests that Sony may be backing
away from the initial losses

The Blu-Ray drive also looks expensive at an estimated $350, and Sony will not
be able to leverage off additional Blu-Ray shipments in DVD players because the
standard is still so new. The specialty XDR memory is unique to PS3 and likely to
be expensive initially. Overall, as the BOM analysis below indicates, we think that
PS3 will cost about $900 initially to manufacture. We note that shifting Cell to
65nm manufacturing should help, as will scaling Blu-Ray drive volume in other
device – both of those changes should hit in 2007, and we think that the BOM
could be down to $320 three years after launch. Our colleague Mr. Kuriyama’s
analysis suggests that Sony may be backing away from those losses until the
company can move to reduce the system’s costs in 2007. The result could be
2006 unit volumes for PS3 in the 2 – 3 million unit range.

Yeh thats what say about the prices. You dont what deals have been struck with the companies about bulk buys!
Hell both the last Playstations have sold more than 100million Units!!
Now say they order 50million units of each part then i'm quite sure they would get a good discount !!

Anyhoo, even if it does cost that much to buld, they wouldnt be stupid enough to try and sell it at that price!

£350 when its first released i think

Lets face it, Sony could stick a $1500 sticker on it and it will sell like mad.

Its never gonna fail, its never gonna flop. But recent reports from near final hardware and devs working on the PS3 claim that its really not that much better than a 360. Your average games will look exactly the same, and there there will be the exclusive games to each console that will BOTH look stunning. In other words, your getting a few more shader passes extra, so the ability from slightly better visuals is there, but will it be met?

Remember, with companies all starting to behave more like EA now, we are probably gonna see shit loads of "made for the same machine"ports between both consoles. So the visual gap will be none existent.

In other words, Sony CAN shift the units, but they also need to think about the 360. If people can play Fifa 2007 on a 360 and have it look EXACTLY the same, why should they spend the extra $$$ for a PS3?

Interesting times ahead indeed. Of course the PS3 wont flop it will sell on past machines and name alone. But Sony could lose a lot of customers if they dont price it the same or better than the 360.

o'dium wrote:Lets face it, Sony could stick a $1500 sticker on it and it will sell like mad.

I doubt it. You have to think about the average PS2 owner, not you or me who actually care about games but the avergae owner.

The avergae owner here in the UK is let's admit, chavs. It's a chavs console and a console for the type of people who buy 'lads' mags.

Those types of people are not going to drop 1500 dollars down for a playstation, you just have to look at the success of the DS compared to the PsP to see that the playstation brand is not strong enough to support those kinds of prices. If the console did launch at those prices they would not be early adaptors of it.

Then in the US theres the fact that jobs are being lost in the 10,000's per week. Come christmas time when little billy asks for a console what are these struggling parents going to put down cash for? a 1500 playstation? a 350 dollar xbox 360? or a 199 dollar nintendo revolution?

I didn't want to call the PS2 a chavs machine because donny would show me the hurt. But it fucking is

Anyways yeah, I guess, but remember that a lot of people dont even want to touch the 360 because of lies and hype about the PS3. Like its over twice as fast, like Killzone really WAS ingame etc. Plus 360 isn't helping itself either. Its capable of the same graphics wise, but everything so far is either a horrid port, really ugly, or just plain shite.

I cant wait for the Revolution myself. Goldeneye online multiplayer with 60 frames per secong locked and in high res with full AA? YES PLEASE.

You know some of the games that are coming for the revolution are also going to have new features. Like Super Mario Kart and Mario Kart 64. Not only are they in higher resolution, but they are also going to be online and will include new maps too.

Thats gonna rawk.

Yeah I think Nintendo are really going to come over as the winners this generation.

The majority of people bought a PS2 because it had DVD support. Nothing else.

But lets face it, for all the chav games (and there are lots of them) there are pure quality games. Classic if you will!

Nintendo have had there feelers out and see how big the "roms" market is and decided to go legit with it and rape more money from old games. Good luck to them i say!

o'dium wrote:I didn't want to call the PS2 a chavs machine because donny would show me the hurt. But it fucking is

Anyways yeah, I guess, but remember that a lot of people dont even want to touch the 360 because of lies and hype about the PS3. Like its over twice as fast, like Killzone really WAS ingame etc. Plus 360 isn't helping itself either. Its capable of the same graphics wise, but everything so far is either a horrid port, really ugly, or just plain shite.

I cant wait for the Revolution myself. Goldeneye online multiplayer with 60 frames per secong locked and in high res with full AA? YES PLEASE.

You know some of the games that are coming for the revolution are also going to have new features. Like Super Mario Kart and Mario Kart 64. Not only are they in higher resolution, but they are also going to be online and will include new maps too.

Thats gonna rawk.

Of course you're talking about games that havn't even been announced yet.

o'dium wrote:
I cant wait for the Revolution myself. Goldeneye online multiplayer with 60 frames per secong locked and in high res with full AA? YES PLEASE.

The game is now shit mate

Broke out my N64 for some old school acion and it just doesnt play well

i already have a ps3 and it ain't no big thang...

Freakaloin wrote:it ain't no big thang...

you get that alot huh

Freakaloin wrote:i already have a ps3 and it ain't no big thang...

u paid for it?...noob alert...

Don Carlos wrote:

o'dium wrote:
I cant wait for the Revolution myself. Goldeneye online multiplayer with 60 frames per secong locked and in high res with full AA? YES PLEASE.

The game is now shit mate

Broke out my N64 for some old school acion and it just doesnt play well

True i guess. Ive been playing through goldeneye myself SP game to get all the cheats again. Its not amazing like i remember.

But dude, Sony and Microsoft are gonna be offering games for fifty squids a time. How much will these games cost? A few quid? Nintendo dont have to produce any books, disks cases or anything. They are gonna rake in the money like theres no tomorrow. I know ill be paying for a shit load.

you mean how HL2 Steam is so much cheaper than its retail counterpart?

a few quid just as the NES classics for GBA were a few quid right?

MKJ wrote:you mean how HL2 Steam is so much cheaper than its retail counterpart?

Difference is, your not buying a NEW game, just a old port.. Kinda like MS arcade, you pay a few bucks for pacman, or joust.. not 19.99 29.99 ect

SOAPboy wrote:

MKJ wrote:you mean how HL2 Steam is so much cheaper than its retail counterpart?

Difference is, your not buying a NEW game, just a old port.. Kinda like MS arcade, you pay a few bucks for pacman, or joust.. not 19.99 29.99 ect

do you honestly think that they will sell relatively recent games like Goldeneye at the same price of pacman and joust?

Chupacabra wrote:

SOAPboy wrote:

MKJ wrote:you mean how HL2 Steam is so much cheaper than its retail counterpart?

Difference is, your not buying a NEW game, just a old port.. Kinda like MS arcade, you pay a few bucks for pacman, or joust.. not 19.99 29.99 ect

do you honestly think that they will sell relatively recent games like Goldeneye at the same price of pacman and joust?

Yeah, i do honestly..

Checked out Live Arcade? and the downloadable games? theres alot of shit there for all 5 bucks and under

I've seen the games on live arcade, but i wasn't able to find what I was looking for--a game releaed around the time of Goldeneye (and has that kind of production value) that's less than 5 dollars?

give me some names?

Chupacabra wrote:I've seen the games on live arcade, but i wasn't able to find what I was looking for--a game releaed around the time of Goldeneye (and has that kind of production value) that's less than 5 dollars?

give me some names?

Dunno about 007 like games.. only stuff ive looked into was joust, and some of the stuff like Geo wars and what not..

Heres whats on the live site..
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/livearcadexbox360/default.htm

SOAPboy wrote:Heres whats on the live site..
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/livearcadexbox360/default.htm

right, and the billiards game costs 15 dollars IIRC. theres no way that games like Goldeneye will cost "a few bucks" imo. so im just confused as to why you said you think they would.

15 bucks? um.. most of the games are like 800-1000 "ms points" which are like 15 bucks for 2500 or some shit..
O_o

hmmm, $900 for a PS3 + a few hundred more for a proper HDTV? Something tells me I wont be getting a new console for a while...

I was kinda iffy about getting one at $300 or $400. At $900 they can damn well forget it.