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Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 4:08 pm
by 4days
+JuggerNaut+ wrote:album sales were down this past year approximately 7% while single sales increased. Itunes was ranked number 7 as a music retailer - not bad for getting nothing tangible in return.
download sales overall were down (against predicted growth) in 2005 and that trend is expected to continue until the market beds in (which won't be any time soon). the success of itunes as a newcomer to the market (and the effect that's had on other digital distributors) has been weighted for in that expectation.
the us download market is actually weaker than the european market (in terms of actual sales versus predicted sales). physical product (at least for music) will remain the dominant form of distribution on both sides of the pond for the forseeable future.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 4:27 pm
by R00k
+JuggerNaut+ wrote:the industry is shifting towards selling singles more now than ever before. album sales were down this past year approximately 7% while single sales increased. Itunes was ranked number 7 as a music retailer - not bad for getting nothing tangible in return. most teens don't care about tangibility when it comes to music - they just want it, and want it without having to cruise a brick and mortar.
DRM, as Grudge pointed out, is possibly a reason, but i think that it's more of a gripe, albeit a legitimate one, with nerds, since most folks have no idea what DRM's or rootkits are - but they will.
of course i'm talking about the majority of teens, but i think that this is becoming the trend, unfortunately. top that off with the fact that these digital downloads are of poor quality (128kbps is poor imo) and now you have a ton of kids that don't KNOW that it should and can sound better.
ah, more of the dumbing down of society.
That may be true for music, but those reasons don't translate to software and game sales. Especially software - a lot of people want to go talk to some idiot at a brick-n-mortar who will tell them what they need and how hard it will be to set it up, etc.
I'm not saying that online purchasing won't get huge - but it will still be a little while, and it won't replace storefronts.
I mean, if people really all want to switch to online buying, there wouldn't be any reason for any storefronts at all to exist, because every product can be bought online, from clothing to appliances.
So if your argument's followed out to its logical conclusion, there won't be anything left but maybe malls and restaurants.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 4:32 pm
by R00k
4days wrote:+JuggerNaut+ wrote:album sales were down this past year approximately 7% while single sales increased. Itunes was ranked number 7 as a music retailer - not bad for getting nothing tangible in return.
download sales overall were down (against predicted growth) in 2005 and that trend is expected to continue until the market beds in (which won't be any time soon). the success of itunes as a newcomer to the market (and the effect that's had on other digital distributors) has been weighted for in that expectation.
the us download market is actually weaker than the european market (in terms of actual sales versus predicted sales). physical product (at least for music) will remain the dominant form of distribution on both sides of the pond for the forseeable future.
The success of the ITunes music store can be directly attributed to the success of the iPod, not to a sea change in public attitude towards online shopping.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 4:33 pm
by Foo
Be careful that you distunguish simply buying online with purchasing digital content. They're different.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 4:34 pm
by plained
+JuggerNaut+ wrote:plained wrote:yea
no
piss off unless you have something relevant to say, idiot.
you never pass up a chance to demonstrare your grade school social mentality do you?
name calling
plus it is relevant, learn to think
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 4:35 pm
by Grudge
R00k wrote:I mean, if people really all want to switch to online buying, there wouldn't be any reason for any storefronts at all to exist, because every product can be bought online, from clothing to appliances.
So if your argument's followed out to its logical conclusion, there won't be anything left but maybe malls and restaurants.
You can't really compare software to clothing and appliances. Traditionally, that has been the business model of both ordinary software companies and game publishers though, selling their products as "packaged goods". But now, Microsoft has realized this, and are moving towards subscription based online services, and the big game publishers are bleeding money on failed AAA titles, while the casual online market is exploding, that is changing. Software is not an appliance.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 4:38 pm
by 4days
R00k wrote:The success of the ITunes music store can be directly attributed to the success of the iPod, not to a sea change in public attitude towards online shopping.
cookie - but it still had to be taken into account when working out the numbers, and juggs had mentioned it specifically in his post so i thought i should in mine.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 4:45 pm
by R00k
Foo wrote:Be careful that you distunguish simply buying online with purchasing digital content. They're different.
Grudge wrote:You can't really compare software to clothing and appliances. Traditionally, that has been the business model of both ordinary software companies and game publishers though, selling their products as "packaged goods". But now, Microsoft has realized this, and are moving towards subscription based online services, and the big game publishers are bleeding money on failed AAA titles, while the casual online market is exploding, that is changing. Software is not an appliance.
If the argument is that people's attitudes about online shopping are widely changing, then it's a relevant point.
Also, brick and mortar software stores always carry a lot more than just software, so how are they going to close down without people buying all their other goods online?
Or is the idea that the big software developers will stop supplying storefronts with software to sell?
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:57 pm
by Grudge
Yes, basically. It will start with them supplying the software online at a lower cost, then it will be subscription based, and you'll have to pay extra if you want a "hard" copy. You might perhaps as a compromize be able to purchase a subscription at a storefront (like you buy xbox live or WoW "coupons" today), and you can go home, download the software and activate the subscription, but if you want a DVD with the software on it, you'll have to pay extra.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:22 pm
by R00k
I see what you mean, but you can already get things cheaper if you order them online - including software. Limiting consumer choice isn't a very smart strategy for most companies -- do you think they will start tacking on additional fees to the already more expensive storefront products, to make online purchases more attractive?
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:38 pm
by +JuggerNaut+
4days wrote:+JuggerNaut+ wrote:album sales were down this past year approximately 7% while single sales increased. Itunes was ranked number 7 as a music retailer - not bad for getting nothing tangible in return.
download sales overall were down (against predicted growth) in 2005 and that trend is expected to continue until the market beds in (which won't be any time soon). the success of itunes as a newcomer to the market (and the effect that's had on other digital distributors) has been weighted for in that expectation.
the us download market is actually weaker than the european market (in terms of actual sales versus predicted sales). physical product (at least for music) will remain the dominant form of distribution on both sides of the pond for the forseeable future.
I'd sure like to believe you. I hate how the music industry as a whole is looking, not to mention the quality, or lack thereof, in popular music production and business practices.
R00k wrote:+JuggerNaut+ wrote:the industry is shifting towards selling singles more now than ever before. album sales were down this past year approximately 7% while single sales increased. Itunes was ranked number 7 as a music retailer - not bad for getting nothing tangible in return. most teens don't care about tangibility when it comes to music - they just want it, and want it without having to cruise a brick and mortar.
DRM, as Grudge pointed out, is possibly a reason, but i think that it's more of a gripe, albeit a legitimate one, with nerds, since most folks have no idea what DRM's or rootkits are - but they will.
of course i'm talking about the majority of teens, but i think that this is becoming the trend, unfortunately. top that off with the fact that these digital downloads are of poor quality (128kbps is poor imo) and now you have a ton of kids that don't KNOW that it should and can sound better.
ah, more of the dumbing down of society.
That may be true for music, but those reasons don't translate to software and game sales. Especially software - a lot of people want to go talk to some idiot at a brick-n-mortar who will tell them what they need and how hard it will be to set it up, etc.
I'm not saying that online purchasing won't get huge - but it will still be a little while, and it won't replace storefronts.
I mean, if people really all want to switch to online buying, there wouldn't be any reason for any storefronts at all to exist, because every product can be bought online, from clothing to appliances.
So if your argument's followed out to its logical conclusion, there won't be anything left but maybe malls and restaurants.
i was
only referring to music.
plained wrote:+JuggerNaut+ wrote:plained wrote:yea
no
piss off unless you have something relevant to say, idiot.
you never pass up a chance to demonstrare your grade school social mentality do you?
name calling
plus it is relevant, learn to think
AA
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:39 pm
by plained
the diff between fantasy and reality is another thing you cant percieve
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:40 pm
by +JuggerNaut+
F5, boy you're quick
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 7:42 pm
by R00k
+JuggerNaut+ wrote:
i was only referring to music.
Gotcha. Since the conversation started up about games and software, I assumed you were including them.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 8:07 pm
by Grudge
R00k wrote:do you think they will start tacking on additional fees to the already more expensive storefront products, to make online purchases more attractive?
No, they will just charge slightly less for the downloadable version, making a larger profit as there is no retailer who adds his percentage.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 8:33 pm
by R00k
If they make the price difference big enough, they could probably get most people to make the change. I guess it could be a feasible option if/when everyone with a PC has broadband access.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 9:59 pm
by primaltheory
Yea I don't see the point of paying the same If I don't get a tangible box, cd/dvd, manual, and any extras that the retail guys get.
Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2006 10:01 pm
by 4days
+JuggerNaut+ wrote:I'd sure like to believe you. I hate how the music industry as a whole is looking, not to mention the quality, or lack thereof, in popular music production and business practices.
it's a fact, not an opinion. none of the major companies have any plans to invest more money than has already been earmarked for download sales - the numbers just aren't good enough, some are even cutting money for downloads back. where's the real money coming from if all you're ultimately doing is running an FTP? how do you finance new artists? record companies aren't going to change the way their businesses are structured in a matter of years just because the goal posts have moved half an inch.
the music industry as a whole isn't making as much money as it thinks it should be - but that's not because of a change in technology - it's because, like you said, it's run by people who think selling music is no different to selling tyres or loft insulation or bread
