Quake3World.com Forums
     General Discussion
        Brexiting is closer than I thought it would be
Post new topicReply to topic
Login | Profile | | FAQ | Search | IRC




Previous topic | Next topic 

Stay or leave the EU ?
Stay  57%  [ 15 ]
Leave  42%  [ 11 ]
Total votes : 26
Topic Starter Topic: Brexiting is closer than I thought it would be
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 11:32 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

And all we wanted was less Romanian neighbours :olo:



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Last edited by losCHUNK on 06-23-2016 06:49 AM, edited 1 time in total.
Top
                 
phantasmagoria
Bück Dich
Bück Dich
Joined: 21 Oct 2003
Posts: 6228
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 11:39 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I really hope we don't leave.



_________________
[size=85]
Top
                 
vesp
meh...
meh...
Joined: 23 Mar 2000
Posts: 4255
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 11:42 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I don't know anyone who is going to vote leave...
Top
                 
phantasmagoria
Bück Dich
Bück Dich
Joined: 21 Oct 2003
Posts: 6228
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 11:46 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I do, my facebook is awash with people spewing immigration hatred. THEY TOOK OUR JOBS BLAME THE EU.

I argued with someone at work on Friday about them wanting to leave the EU because of Turkey gaining visa free travel. After explaining the Schengen agreement to them they told me I was making it up, otherwise they'd have heard of it. This is the kind of moron that votes to leave.



_________________
[size=85]
Top
                 
seremtan
Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34899
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 11:58 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


losCHUNK wrote:
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

And all we wanted was less Romanian neighbours :olo:


it's not that close

Image

leave is flat; remain is trending upward as all the undecideds make up their minds

btw this is from the FT data you just cited
Top
                 
Captain
Legend
Legend
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 16499
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 12:03 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Are chavs immigrants too?
Top
                 
seremtan
Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34899
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 12:09 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


phantasmagoria wrote:
I do, my facebook is awash with people spewing immigration hatred.


yeah, this is the most disappointing thing about the Brexit campaign. they have strong arguments but instead resort to their own version of the Remain camp's Project Fear bullshit about WW3, immigrants, and house prices

they could instead have focused on the anti-democratic nature of the EU and that staying in means (for example) watching as the NHS gets privatised thanks to TTIP, with no way of stopping it. at least if we were out we could eject the government that pulls this kind of shit

for me it's all about who actually gets to decide how this country is run. out of the EU, democracy might have a chance; staying means you can kiss that goodbye and welcome our new neoliberal overlords

and just look at the Remain camp: a weird alliance of luvvies, CEOs, and Donald Rumsfeld. it's like the Guardian got fucked by the Wall Street Journal and they made a baby. an ugly, stupid baby with Downs
Top
                 
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 12:18 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


seremtan wrote:
losCHUNK wrote:
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

And all we wanted was less Romanian neighbours :olo:


it's not that close

***

leave is flat; remain is trending upward as all the undecideds make up their minds

btw this is from the FT data you just cited


I just said it was closer than I thought, after the last election I don't put much faith in polls and if you look at the last months worth of polls it is pretty erratic. The scots referendum ended up with a few Torys requiring fresh trousers in the end.



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Top
                 
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 12:23 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Infact if you look at that trendline, it's because of the results in the middle in favour of a stay vote that are influencing it.

It gets much closer towards the end with only a clear lead opening up in the last week.



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Top
                 
Captain
Legend
Legend
Joined: 04 Jan 2006
Posts: 16499
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 12:48 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Maybe another Mossad-style terrorist attack will help the far-right get the results they need.
Top
                 
phantasmagoria
Bück Dich
Bück Dich
Joined: 21 Oct 2003
Posts: 6228
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 01:09 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


seremtan wrote:

it's not that close


I think the voting to stay folk are the ones more likely to be too apathetic to vote, which despite the pre-poll numbers means the Leave campaign might win.

Far more young people under 30 would rather stay whereas far more 50+ want to leave, at the polling stations the 50+ demographic are far more likely to turn up.



_________________
[size=85]
Top
                 
Don Carlos
Unquantifiable Abstract
Unquantifiable Abstract
Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 52134
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 01:34 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


phantasmagoria wrote:
I really hope we don't leave.
Top
                 
seremtan
Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34899
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 01:38 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


losCHUNK wrote:
Infact if you look at that trendline, it's because of the results in the middle in favour of a stay vote that are influencing it.

It gets much closer towards the end with only a clear lead opening up in the last week.


i see what you're getting at, but there are other factors:

* there are 24 polls showing Remain at >50%; only 3 showing Leave at >50%
* 11 of the Remain polls at >50% are from this year; Leave has no results >50% for this year

UK has been in the EU for long enough for a good head of steam to build up for Brexit. these polls show that this just hasn't happened

then again, as phags pointed out, it might be that demographic voting patterns that swing it over the line for Brexit. depends on how much people believe Gideon's bollocks about an 18% drop in house prices if Brexit
Top
                 
seremtan
Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34899
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 01:41 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Don Carlos wrote:
phantasmagoria wrote:
I really hope we don't leave.


a year ago i thought this, and there are still things i like about being in the EU (the free movement of people being one of them), but i've seen enough of the dark side of the EU in the last 12 months to make me wonder if that's enough to sell it. i mean, if we'd never joined, like Norway, would we be hammering on the door right now? i doubt it
Top
                 
seremtan
Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34899
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 02:27 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Muslamic Rayguns :olo:

great name for a band
Top
                 
MKJ
Messatsu Ko Jy-ouu
Messatsu Ko Jy-ouu
Joined: 24 Nov 2000
Posts: 44139
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 02:44 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Morons get their way in the EU anyway, might as well leave now too (even tho noones allowed to leave the EU, ever)
Top
                 
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 04:39 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


seremtan wrote:
losCHUNK wrote:
Infact if you look at that trendline, it's because of the results in the middle in favour of a stay vote that are influencing it.

It gets much closer towards the end with only a clear lead opening up in the last week.


i see what you're getting at, but there are other factors:

* there are 24 polls showing Remain at >50%; only 3 showing Leave at >50%
* 11 of the Remain polls at >50% are from this year; Leave has no results >50% for this year


That's fair enough, I'll just say that the sample data you've selected could be flawed as you're only including polls that hit over 50% (there's not that many that award +50% to either). Anyway, I still find it a little erratic the closer we get to the deadline :shrug: . Polls are polls though.

I'm one of those that really isn't bothered either way though, just all along I assumed we would stay and this was an election ploy by the Torys to hijack UKIPpers. There is a lot more support than I imagined and it is in a position to succeed imo, although unlikley.

And the subject material has probaly made me not give a shit. Immigration / house prices n all that, but I'm prolly more inclined to keep the status quo if only because of a rampant Tory government free from Europe. I noticed you mentioned TTIP further up n all but aren;t our own government accepting it anyway ?, with some bullshit safeguards for the NHS before it gets auctioned off to the Cameron household ?. It's already being stripped down as we speak.



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Top
                 
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-22-2016 04:56 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Oh yea and :D



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Top
                 
seremtan
Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34899
PostPosted: 05-23-2016 09:13 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


losCHUNK wrote:
I'll just say that the sample data you've selected could be flawed as you're only including polls that hit over 50% (there's not that many that award +50% to either).


uh, dude... that data is in the FT page you yourself linked. the reason the 50% threshold is important is because at >50% the influence of the undecideds on the outcome is zero.

Quote:
I noticed you mentioned TTIP further up n all but aren;t our own government accepting it anyway ?, with some bullshit safeguards for the NHS before it gets auctioned off to the Cameron household ?. It's already being stripped down as we speak.


TTIP is a trade deal between the US and EU. if we're not in the EU, we're not in TTIP
Top
                 
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-23-2016 09:36 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


seremtan wrote:
losCHUNK wrote:
I'll just say that the sample data you've selected could be flawed as you're only including polls that hit over 50% (there's not that many that award +50% to either).


uh, dude... that data is in the FT page you yourself linked. the reason the 50% threshold is important is because at >50% the influence of the undecideds on the outcome is zero.


Aye, why is that relevant ?. You've either omitted or forced the undecideds to make a choice though, why I said the data 'you've selected'. I mean you've omitted like 75% ? of the polls. Cmon man you know what I'm getting at.

I cba to look into it but I'm willing to bet those 50/50 polls were done by the same companys n all, or possibly company.

Quote:
I noticed you mentioned TTIP further up n all but aren;t our own government accepting it anyway ?, with some bullshit safeguards for the NHS before it gets auctioned off to the Cameron household ?. It's already being stripped down as we speak.

Quote:
TTIP is a trade deal between the US and EU. if we're not in the EU, we're not in TTIP




If we're not in the EU, we'll negotiate for TTIP or its equivalent. The Torys are wanking all over it.

Democracy won't prevail if we're outside the EU either, that's some fantasyland shit. Our political landscape won't change.



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Top
                 
plained
plained
plained
Joined: 12 Jun 2002
Posts: 18772
PostPosted: 05-23-2016 10:02 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


misdirectioning functioning as intended!



_________________
it is about time!
Top
                 
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-23-2016 10:27 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Infact talking about TTIP I'm pretty sure we have veto power. So yea, there you go...



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Top
                 
seremtan
Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34899
PostPosted: 05-23-2016 11:02 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


losCHUNK wrote:
Aye, why is that relevant ?. You've either omitted or forced the undecideds to make a choice though, why I said the data 'you've selected'. I mean you've omitted like 75% ? of the polls. Cmon man you know what I'm getting at.


ffs dude look at the chart i posted earlier. count the blue spikes that cross the 50% line. now count the orange spikes that do the same. see how there are way more >50% blues than >50% oranges? that should tell you something

Quote:
I cba to look into it but I'm willing to bet those 50/50 polls were done by the same companys n all, or possibly company.


well i guess that's that then :dts:

Quote:
I noticed you mentioned TTIP further up n all but aren;t our own government accepting it anyway ?, with some bullshit safeguards for the NHS before it gets auctioned off to the Cameron household ?. It's already being stripped down as we speak.

If we're not in the EU, we'll negotiate for TTIP or its equivalent. The Torys are wanking all over it.


did you not hear Obama's "back of the queue" comment?

Quote:
Democracy won't prevail if we're outside the EU either, that's some fantasyland shit. Our political landscape won't change.


so there's nothing to be done - then why the fuck are you arguing about it?
Top
                 
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-23-2016 11:08 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


A: Now you're just dragging the arguement further sideways. The data you had mentioned only included +50 polls which by your own numbers was small (37 out of 228)... I've already mentioned the trendline caused by those spikes you mentioned and you seemed to think it was fair game...

B: Can you not see what I'm getting at ?. I'm not saying they're biased.

C: Yes ?, you think that's seriously going to have any affect ?, if we vote to leave the EU then over the next 3 years we're going to be scrambling to put together any trade deals that we can. That will be a necessity. What you're saying is by leaving the EU (in 3 years) we could slow that process down ?

D: I'm not, most of our arguement revolves around interpreting statistical data, but in our out the EU will have no bearing on our political landscape. I made a statement, it's upto you wether you want to argue against that.



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Top
                 
PhoeniX
Risen From The Ashes
Risen From The Ashes
Joined: 03 Aug 2000
Posts: 26774
PostPosted: 05-23-2016 12:38 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I can't find the original source with all the pretty charts but according to some YouGov polls the older, less educated and poorer you are the more you want to leave the EU - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03 ... ts-to-rem/. The Sun, Mail and Express readers are those most wanting to leave and the Guardian readers mostly want to stay.

That's settled my mind - stay it is ;).
Top
                 
AndyW
The Afflicted
The Afflicted
Joined: 11 Mar 2015
Posts: 848
PostPosted: 05-24-2016 03:39 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


seremtan wrote:
Muslamic Rayguns :olo:

great name for a band


:olo: :olo: Made my day! :up:



_________________
Die Vitamine sind in der Dose gefangen!!!
Top
                 
seremtan
Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34899
PostPosted: 05-24-2016 09:17 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


losCHUNK wrote:
The data you had mentioned only included +50 polls which by your own numbers was small (37 out of 228)...


holy shit are you fucking serious right now? look at the data table at the bottom of the page you yourself linked in your first post. there are 221 polls list there. the chart i posted earlier is based on all 221 of those polls. i highlighted the high number of >50% poll results in favour of remain compared to the very low number of >50% poll results for leave

seriously dude, learn to interpret basic stats
Top
                 
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-24-2016 09:37 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Dude wtf are you on ?

You have used a set of rules (+50%) that ended up reducing your data (the link) to 39 polls. This leaves it wide open to influences. That's why I said it's fair enough but...

Or another way to look at it, only 39 polls out of 221 (not 37 vs 227, apparently) have any discernible opinion one way or another.

So my arguement about it being erratic is square on the money cumnuts.



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Top
                 
seremtan
Etile
Etile
Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 34899
PostPosted: 05-24-2016 12:01 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


losCHUNK wrote:
You have used a set of rules (+50%) that ended up reducing your data (the link) to 39 polls.


seremtan wrote:
there are 221 polls list there. the chart i posted earlier is based on all 221 of those polls.
Top
                 
losCHUNK
Truffle Shuffle
Truffle Shuffle
Joined: 08 May 2002
Posts: 17167
PostPosted: 05-24-2016 12:17 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


Alright, then I'll go back to this as we're looking at the graph in its entirety...

losCHUNK wrote:
Infact if you look at that trendline, it's because of the results in the middle in favour of a stay vote that are influencing it.

It gets much closer towards the end with only a clear lead opening up in the last week.


There you go.

Now about how you have extracted / pointed to / defined less than 25% of that data that spans over a year, with the other 75% being completely ignored and held it as gospel...



_________________
. : You knows you knows

Top
                 
MKJ
Messatsu Ko Jy-ouu
Messatsu Ko Jy-ouu
Joined: 24 Nov 2000
Posts: 44139
PostPosted: 06-01-2016 09:31 PM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


lol

Image
Top
                 
Transient
Arrr?
Arrr?
Joined: 09 Feb 2001
Posts: 35461
PostPosted: 06-01-2016 11:32 PM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


MKJ wrote:
lol

Image


:olo:



_________________
YourGrandpa wrote:
I'm satisfied with voicing my opinion and moving on.
Top
                 
Don Carlos
Unquantifiable Abstract
Unquantifiable Abstract
Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 52134
PostPosted: 06-02-2016 12:14 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


:olo:
Top
                 
Don Carlos
Unquantifiable Abstract
Unquantifiable Abstract
Joined: 31 Dec 1969
Posts: 52134
PostPosted: 06-02-2016 12:15 AM           Profile   Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I now know loads of people who are voting to leave because of "the bloody immigrants". It's a truly sad state of affairs :(
Top
                 
Transient
Arrr?
Arrr?
Joined: 09 Feb 2001
Posts: 35461
PostPosted: 06-02-2016 12:37 AM           Profile Send private message  E-mail  Edit post Reply with quote


I wonder how long it will take before humanity gets over its xenophobia.



_________________
YourGrandpa wrote:
I'm satisfied with voicing my opinion and moving on.
Top
                 
Quake3World.com | Forum Index | General Discussion


Post new topic Reply to topic


cron
Quake3World.com
© ZeniMax. Zenimax, QUAKE III ARENA, Id Software and associated trademarks are trademarks of the ZeniMax group of companies. All rights reserved.
This is an unofficial fan website without any affiliation with or endorsement by ZeniMax.
All views and opinions expressed are those of the author.